Will the price of steel go up? 8-2-2021
Will the price of steel go up? 8-2-2021
Steel price forecast
Although the Ministry of Finance canceled the export tax rebate for steel products, domestic steel products are mainly sold domestically, and the export tax rebate has limited impact. In addition, due to the impact of environmental protection restrictions in China, steel companies have a strong willingness to support prices. Ex-factory prices remain high, and traders hold prices. The willingness is strong, but due to the less-than-expected release of terminal demand, the finished product will not have much room to increase, making the price in a dilemma. For detailed analysis, continue to look down...
01. Spot market
Construction Steel: Rising
Future snails continue to rise, the spot market prices follow the upward adjustment, and the trading atmosphere improves. After the rise, merchants are cautious, and the overall transaction is weak. However, the billet is rising, the support of steel companies is increasing, and the ex-factory price remains high. It is expected that tomorrow's building materials The market price may be stable and strong.
Hot rolled coils: upward adjustment
Papers fluctuated and moved higher, the spot market prices were firm, trading improved, merchants focused on shipments, and steel companies increased their production restrictions in the second half of the year. Demand will start gradually in August, and the market is expected to be better. Tomorrow's hot coil market prices may rise steadily.
Plate: Rising
Papers continue to rise. Merchants generally sell at high prices, mostly on-demand purchases. Some steel mills have recently increased their ex-factory prices. Merchants have been actively preparing for inventory. Coupled with the disturbance of the capital market, market speculation will continue. It is expected that tomorrow The price of plate may be stable and strong.
Strip steel: up
Affected by steel companies’ power cuts and production cuts, steel companies’ ex-factory prices have remained high, coupled with continued macroeconomic benefits, futures have risen, major upstream players have followed suit, and downstream end customers have purchased on demand. The market is afraid of high prices. It is expected tomorrow The strip market price fluctuated and adjusted.
Profile: Upward
The billet is rising, the cost side is supporting high, and the spot market is rising slightly. However, with the tightening of the new crown pneumonia control, logistics, transportation and delivery have been blocked to varying degrees. In addition, the off-season demand continues to be weak, and market transactions continue to be weak. It is expected that the prices of profile materials may rise steadily tomorrow.
Pipe material: strong
At present, production restriction policies have been issued in many places, the enthusiasm for replenishment in downstream has been weakened, the overall market inventory is low, and the market is in the stage of long-short game. The wait-and-see psychology of merchants is obvious. However, the cost-side support has strengthened, and market sentiment has been boosted to a certain extent. Better, it is expected that the pipe market will be stronger tomorrow.
02. The raw material market
Iron ore: steady weakening
Affected by weak foreign mines, the mentality of internal fans is not good, the market is not trading smoothly, and in the second half of the year, steel companies are subject to stricter environmental protection restrictions on production. The iron ore market price may be stable and adjusted.
Scrap steel: steady increase
At present, the limited production area in various provinces is further expanded, market transactions are limited, and the cost side support is strong, steel quotations are relatively strong, and there are speculation factors in the short-term steel market. It is expected that scrap prices will rise steadily tomorrow.
Coke: a steady rise
Disturbed by environmental factors, the supply of coke in some areas fluctuates slightly, and some coke companies are reluctant to sell their products. The overall operation of steel plants is temporarily stable, and the inventory in the plant is on a downward trend. There is still a certain demand for coke, and the market mentality has slightly improved. Some traders have increased their purchasing enthusiasm, and it is expected that the coke market price will be stable and strong tomorrow.
Pig iron: steady rise
At present, the market inventory is low and the trading atmosphere is general. With the falling price of ore, rising coke, and rising steel billets, the profit margin of steel companies has rebounded, and the market wait-and-see atmosphere has gradually increased. Merchants offer multi-dimensional stability. It is expected that the pig iron market price may stabilize tomorrow. .
03. There are several influencing factors
1. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Ecology and Environment will work with relevant parties in the near future to formulate a shifting production plan for steel enterprises in autumn and winter.
Wu Xianfeng, deputy director of the Department of Atmospheric Environment of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, and a first-level inspector, said that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Ecology and Environment will work with relevant parties to formulate a staggered production plan for steel enterprises in autumn and winter.
2. Bank of China International: commodity prices will rise further in the second half of the year, and the growth rate will ease a lot
In the first half of this year, the prices of many commodities in my country rose sharply, and the prices of iron ore and coal all hit record highs. The National Standing Committee called "bulk commodities" many times, and multiple departments used policy "combination punches" to stabilize the prices of commodities, relieve the difficulties of small and medium-sized enterprises, and ease the pressure brought by rising prices of raw materials.
3. China will launch "peak electricity price" and "deep valley electricity price" mechanisms
The National Development and Reform Commission pointed out that all localities should actively improve the peak-to-valley price mechanism in light of local conditions, take overall consideration of local power supply and demand conditions, the proportion of new energy installed capacity and other factors, scientifically divide peak and valley periods, and reasonably determine the peak-to-valley price difference. The system peak-valley rate exceeds In 40% of the places, the peak-to-valley price difference is not less than 4:1 in principle, and in other places it is not less than 3:1.
Affected by this, steel enterprises are limited in production, ex-factory prices remain high, and steel prices remain high.
04. Comprehensive view
Although the Ministry of Finance canceled the export tax rebate for steel products, domestic steel products are mainly sold domestically, and the export tax rebate has limited impact. In addition, due to the impact of environmental protection restrictions in China, steel companies have a strong willingness to support prices. Ex-factory prices remain high, and traders hold prices. The willingness is strong, but due to the less-than-expected release of terminal demand, the finished products will not have much room to increase, which will put prices in a dilemma. It is expected that the price of steel products may fluctuate tomorrow.
Steel price forecast
Although the Ministry of Finance canceled the export tax rebate for steel products, domestic steel products are mainly sold domestically, and the export tax rebate has limited impact. In addition, due to the impact of environmental protection restrictions in China, steel companies have a strong willingness to support prices. Ex-factory prices remain high, and traders hold prices. The willingness is strong, but due to the less-than-expected release of terminal demand, the finished product will not have much room to increase, making the price in a dilemma. For detailed analysis, continue to look down...
01. Spot market
Construction Steel: Rising
Future snails continue to rise, the spot market prices follow the upward adjustment, and the trading atmosphere improves. After the rise, merchants are cautious, and the overall transaction is weak. However, the billet is rising, the support of steel companies is increasing, and the ex-factory price remains high. It is expected that tomorrow's building materials The market price may be stable and strong.
Hot rolled coils: upward adjustment
Papers fluctuated and moved higher, the spot market prices were firm, trading improved, merchants focused on shipments, and steel companies increased their production restrictions in the second half of the year. Demand will start gradually in August, and the market is expected to be better. Tomorrow's hot coil market prices may rise steadily.
Plate: Rising
Papers continue to rise. Merchants generally sell at high prices, mostly on-demand purchases. Some steel mills have recently increased their ex-factory prices. Merchants have been actively preparing for inventory. Coupled with the disturbance of the capital market, market speculation will continue. It is expected that tomorrow The price of plate may be stable and strong.
Strip steel: up
Affected by steel companies’ power cuts and production cuts, steel companies’ ex-factory prices have remained high, coupled with continued macroeconomic benefits, futures have risen, major upstream players have followed suit, and downstream end customers have purchased on demand. The market is afraid of high prices. It is expected tomorrow The strip market price fluctuated and adjusted.
Profile: Upward
The billet is rising, the cost side is supporting high, and the spot market is rising slightly. However, with the tightening of the new crown pneumonia control, logistics, transportation and delivery have been blocked to varying degrees. In addition, the off-season demand continues to be weak, and market transactions continue to be weak. It is expected that the prices of profile materials may rise steadily tomorrow.
Pipe material: strong
At present, production restriction policies have been issued in many places, the enthusiasm for replenishment in downstream has been weakened, the overall market inventory is low, and the market is in the stage of long-short game. The wait-and-see psychology of merchants is obvious. However, the cost-side support has strengthened, and market sentiment has been boosted to a certain extent. Better, it is expected that the pipe market will be stronger tomorrow.
02. The raw material market
Iron ore: steady weakening
Affected by weak foreign mines, the mentality of internal fans is not good, the market is not trading smoothly, and in the second half of the year, steel companies are subject to stricter environmental protection restrictions on production. The iron ore market price may be stable and adjusted.
Scrap steel: steady increase
At present, the limited production area in various provinces is further expanded, market transactions are limited, and the cost side support is strong, steel quotations are relatively strong, and there are speculation factors in the short-term steel market. It is expected that scrap prices will rise steadily tomorrow.
Coke: a steady rise
Disturbed by environmental factors, the supply of coke in some areas fluctuates slightly, and some coke companies are reluctant to sell their products. The overall operation of steel plants is temporarily stable, and the inventory in the plant is on a downward trend. There is still a certain demand for coke, and the market mentality has slightly improved. Some traders have increased their purchasing enthusiasm, and it is expected that the coke market price will be stable and strong tomorrow.
Pig iron: steady rise
At present, the market inventory is low and the trading atmosphere is general. With the falling price of ore, rising coke, and rising steel billets, the profit margin of steel companies has rebounded, and the market wait-and-see atmosphere has gradually increased. Merchants offer multi-dimensional stability. It is expected that the pig iron market price may stabilize tomorrow. .
03. There are several influencing factors
1. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Ecology and Environment will work with relevant parties in the near future to formulate a shifting production plan for steel enterprises in autumn and winter.
Wu Xianfeng, deputy director of the Department of Atmospheric Environment of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, and a first-level inspector, said that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Ecology and Environment will work with relevant parties to formulate a staggered production plan for steel enterprises in autumn and winter.
2. Bank of China International: commodity prices will rise further in the second half of the year, and the growth rate will ease a lot
In the first half of this year, the prices of many commodities in my country rose sharply, and the prices of iron ore and coal all hit record highs. The National Standing Committee called "bulk commodities" many times, and multiple departments used policy "combination punches" to stabilize the prices of commodities, relieve the difficulties of small and medium-sized enterprises, and ease the pressure brought by rising prices of raw materials.
3. China will launch "peak electricity price" and "deep valley electricity price" mechanisms
The National Development and Reform Commission pointed out that all localities should actively improve the peak-to-valley price mechanism in light of local conditions, take overall consideration of local power supply and demand conditions, the proportion of new energy installed capacity and other factors, scientifically divide peak and valley periods, and reasonably determine the peak-to-valley price difference. The system peak-valley rate exceeds In 40% of the places, the peak-to-valley price difference is not less than 4:1 in principle, and in other places it is not less than 3:1.
Affected by this, steel enterprises are limited in production, ex-factory prices remain high, and steel prices remain high.
04. Comprehensive view
Although the Ministry of Finance canceled the export tax rebate for steel products, domestic steel products are mainly sold domestically, and the export tax rebate has limited impact. In addition, due to the impact of environmental protection restrictions in China, steel companies have a strong willingness to support prices. Ex-factory prices remain high, and traders hold prices. The willingness is strong, but due to the less-than-expected release of terminal demand, the finished products will not have much room to increase, which will put prices in a dilemma. It is expected that the price of steel products may fluctuate tomorrow.
